Let’s say the latest number flying around is 245%. That’s where US tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles landed a few weeks ago. But let’s be honest. By the time this is read, it could be 145%, 300%, or whatever figure Trump plucked from the air after breakfast. This isn’t policy. It’s performance art—with serious commercial consequences.
Let’s say the latest number flying around is 245%. That’s where US tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles landed a few weeks ago. But let’s be honest. By the time this is read, it could be 145%, 300%, or whatever figure Trump plucked from the air after breakfast. This isn’t policy. It’s performance art—with serious commercial consequences.
China, meanwhile, isn’t making noise. They’ve offloaded US debt, paused Boeing aircraft orders, and shifted agricultural buying to Australia and Brazil. They’ve created a quiet exemption list for key US-made goods—pharmaceuticals, chips, aircraft engines—things they still need. Smart. Tactical. No shouting required.
They’ve also begun restricting exports of minerals essential to Western industries—EVs, semiconductors, defence.
They’re not throwing plates; they’re removing fixtures and rearranging the room. This isn’t a trade dispute. It’s a separation. One side is changing the locks. The other is shouting from the front garden that everything is fine.
For those of us trying to price goods for Q1 next year, this chaos is very real. And the uncertainty isn’t going anywhere. Trump may well return—and he doesn’t operate from a strategy, but a mood. What’s in place today could vanish tomorrow, depending on who’s whispered what over lunch.
Do you move sourcing? Reroute containers? Sit tight until November? There’s no clear path. The only rational approach is to expect disruption, pad timelines, and have contingencies for the absurd.
And here’s the rub: if the goal is to reduce dependence on China, fine. But tariffs alone won’t build new factories. They just increase costs and inject more uncertainty into already fragile systems.
This isn’t abstract. It’s hitting small and mid-sized businesses directly. Retailers are hesitant. Buyers are cautious. Consumers are stretched.
And none of this noisy posturing builds confidence.
Meanwhile, China remains silent. No phone calls, no olive branches. Much to Trump’s disappointment—he expected theatre. What he got instead was professional diplomats with a strategy, and a country willing to take the long view. And probably more pain than many in Washington are prepared to endure.
Let’s not pretend these tariffs are targeted tools. They’re arbitrary. Take Australia. Free trade agreement in place, trade surplus favouring the US—still got hit with a 10% tariff. There’s no principle behind it. Just noise.
Who blinks first? No idea. But if we’re still here in six months, clever pricing and crossed fingers won’t cut it. We’ll need a proper reset.
Until we see real change, treat policy like weather—plan for storms, expect delays, and hope your roof holds.
Footnote – May 2025 Update:
Trump blinked, as expected. Tariffs have been lowered to 30% for now, but only for 90 days. So what happens to the orders that were cancelled in China? Is there still time to produce and ship in time? Will importers take the gamble and place new orders, betting the 30% rate will still hold after the 90-day window?
One thing is certain: this will create a surge of shipments, and the shipping lines will be rubbing their hands. After all, they made over $110 billion in operating profit in 2021 alone, rode the wave through 2022, and even in 2024 still walked away with $27.3 billion in EBIT. Not bad for an industry that used to complain about razor-thin margins. The house always wins.
Thierry, a seasoned international sales and marketing expert, founded Konomocha in 2015. With over 20 years of experience, he helps toy and stationery brands expand into EMEA and APAC markets.
This article originally appeared in Edition 15 of The Toy Universe Magazine
