The playbook has changed. Retail is concentrated, margins are tighter, and risk sits earlier in the cycle. So how are serious operators actually making decisions right now? For this Melbourne Toy Fair edition, senior leaders from privately owned businesses speak plainly about leverage, discipline, and what will separate winners from survivors in the next phase.
What has fundamentally changed in how you assess opportunity today versus three years ago?
What’s really changed over the past three years is how nuanced channel strategy has become. Instead of treating retail as a handful of big, mostly similar partners, we’re now working much more closely with a broader mix of alternative and non-traditional channels. That closer partnership helps us better understand how each channel operates, who their consumers are, and what drives growth for them. With that insight, we can be much more targeted, shaping assortments, pricing, and go-to-market plans by channel rather than relying on a one-size-fits-all approach. Expanding our SKU count supports this too, giving us more flexibility to test, learn, and scale across channels at the same time.
With retail so concentrated, where do you now see genuine leverage—product, brand, relationships, or execution?
In today’s increasingly concentrated retail landscape, brand is still our biggest source of real leverage, with product right behind it. In a world driven by social media and fast-moving copycats, a distinctive, trusted brand is what breaks through the noise, creates an emotional connection, and keeps consumers coming back after the trend fades. Strong branding also helps support pricing and lowers risk for retailers. At the same time, we’re being deliberate about not over-indexing on retail concentration by pushing growth beyond the top three big-box players.
That diversification gives us more negotiating leverage and opens opportunities with additional national retailers across multiple categories, resulting in a broader distribution footprint.
What’s the one thing suppliers consistently underestimate about working with major retailers today?
Suppliers often underestimate how fast major retailers can spot global toy trends and turn them into sellable products, thanks to their scale, data, and in-house capabilities. Today’s top retailers aren’t just passive buyers anymore – they’re actively building private-label lines to drive higher margins and rely less on outside brands. Because of that, simply coming up with a good product idea isn’t enough. Branded toy companies need to move faster, protect what makes them different and keep investing in innovation and brand strength to stay relevant. Retailers are increasingly looking for partners who bring a solid IP, marketing strength and executional value that’s hard to copy.
Are we in a defensive cycle, or the early stages of a new growth model for the industry?
From my perspective, the toy industry has clearly moved into a new growth model, shaped by faster product cycles and big shifts in how retail works. One of the biggest changes is the influence of Asian-led trend toys and retailers – markets like China, Korea, Japan, and Southeast Asia are increasingly setting the pace for global demand, rather than the other way around.
At the same time, new selling models like livestream shopping, TikTok Shop, and influencer-led retail are changing how consumers discover toys and decide what to buy. All of this is leveling the playing field, giving mid-sized national retailers and more agile brands a real chance to move quickly, ride trends, and capture share in ways that just weren’t possible before.
Looking ahead 3–5 years, what capability will most clearly separate winners from survivors?
I would say that the biggest difference between companies that really win in the toy industry and those that just get by will be how well they adapt, automate, and use AI across the business. Teams that lean into AI for things like demand forecasting, product development, supply chain efficiency, and content creation will be able to grow faster without ballooning costs. By cutting down on slow, manual, repetitive work, people can spend more time on innovation, getting to market faster, and driving real growth – which will matter more than ever in an increasingly competitive and fast-moving space.
This article also appeared in Edition 20 of The Toy Universe Magazine
