The playbook has changed. Retail is concentrated, margins are tighter, and risk sits earlier in the cycle. So how are serious operators actually making decisions right now? For this Melbourne Toy Fair edition, senior leaders from privately owned businesses speak plainly about leverage, discipline, and what will separate winners from survivors in the next phase.
What has fundamentally changed in how you assess opportunity today versus three years ago?
Three years ago, we measured opportunity by how many gaps we could potentially fill on the shelf, how far we could stretch the range, and how broad the brand could go. Fast forward to today, and it’s a much tighter, retailer-first assessment. Now we look at how quickly we can sell-through, how durable the margin is, and whether the range will get replenished—long-term brand ambition comes after that. Retailers are holding less stock, turning it faster, and they just can’t entertain slow movers.
Shelf space is even more competitive thanks to OEMs, private label, and vertical brands, and a weaker dollar just piles on cost pressure. For wholesalers like us, it’s not about getting as much range in as possible—it’s about making sure what’s there actually performs. Brands must show they’re relevant from day one.
With retail so concentrated, where do you now see genuine leverage: product, brand, relationships, or execution?
Real leverage now comes from execution, built on solid product basics. Relationships still count, but they can’t cover for results that aren’t there. Retailers need to move stock and protect cash flow, so they’re all about outcomes. Brand awareness is nice, but if it doesn’t move the needle on sell-through, it’s not much use. In wholesale, what counts is a range that’s easy to buy, easy to put on shelf, and simple to keep in stock. Clear pricing, great presentation, and marketing that drives demand matter way more than old-school brand equity.
What’s the one thing suppliers consistently underestimate about working with independents today?
Suppliers often miss how tight things are for independents—time, cash, and headspace are all in short supply. Most store owners are juggling staff shortages, higher costs, and softer sales, all while working the shop floor themselves. They don’t have time for complicated ranges or wishy-washy value props. What matters is whether a product is relevant to their local customers, sells fast, and keeps things simple. If your product earns its spot and you help them trade smarter, so their time is respected, you’ve got a better chance of getting prioritised!
Are we in a defensive cycle, or the early stages of a new growth model for the industry?
Right now, the industry is in a defensive cycle—everyone’s focused on risk, cash flow, and protecting margin. But there’s a silver lining: we’re getting back to basics. More active selling, sharper range strategies, and better account management are driving results. Growth isn’t about expanding for the sake of it; it’s coming from doing the fundamentals well and executing efficiently.
Looking ahead 3–5 years, what capability will most clearly separate winners from survivors?
The real separator will be who can spot where demand’s heading—before it’s obvious. Lovely crystal-ball stuff to provide a clear focus and direction. The best wholesalers will blend smart range management, data, and trend analysis (including what’s happening in other markets) to guide their buying. They’ll invest in marketing focused on creating demand rather than discount-led strategies and launch new lines with real clarity and consistency.
This article also appeared in Edition 20 of The Toy Universe Magazine
